http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6968179.stm
This is of course great news to hear. Personally I am happy that the hostages were freed however it makes me wonder if this sets a bad precendent. By directly negotiating with the Taliban, South Korea has inadvertently given recognition to Taliban. South Korea has basically complied with Taliban's demands for taking out all its troops from Afghanistan within a year and to not allow any more missionary activity on Afghani soil. There have been reports that South Korea may have paid a ransom as well but that has yet to be substantiated.
My problem with this arrangement is that it exposes a major weakness in the coalition forces armor. First of all, non-military or non-NGO(other than ones approved by coalition forces and Afghani authorities) should not have been allowed to go to Afghanistan in the first place. Missionary work in that part of the world is tantamount to suicide and can produce cultural and religious friction. Until there is a semblence of stability in Afghanistan, I feel that only secular and non religious organizations should be allowed to go to Afghanistan. Secondly, by directly negotiating with Taliban, you give them legitimacy and completely destory almost 6 years worth of effort to stamp Taliban presence and importance out of the area. By releasing the hostages, Taliban has won a major PR battle; perhaps not as much in the Western world, but definately in the Islamic world. Now radical Islamists or hardcore conservatives have a new reason to admire the group because not only did they get recognition, the Taliban also managed to influence negotiations to their liking. It sets a very bad precedent.
On another note, by getting the results and concessions they wanted, Taliban forces can now pull the same stunt again on other coalition forces citizens. There's already a German national in Taliban clutches; Angela Merkel has insisted that Germany will never negotiate with Taliban. However its possible that some German citizens will say that if South Korea can negotiate with Taliban and get their citizens released, then why can't we? And as more people are taken hostages, the people of the respective countries will ask the same thing. Suddenly, governments will have no choice but to see Taliban as a legitimate, negotiating party.
Hopefully, coalition forces will take extra precautions and protect their citizens from being kidnapped but this is only th beginning. My prediction is that Taliban will come back in full force and use this incident as the inspiration for large scale black mailing and PR campaign to appeal to the radical Islamic world for support.
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Sadr freezes Militia activities...for 6 months
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6968720.stm
What is Moqutada Al Sadr upto...that is the question on everyone's minds at the moment. It really is a risky move on his part to "freeze" and "reorganize" the Mehdi army. Risky because it shows that even Sadr can't control his own militia, especially the excesses and recklessness of its members(i.e. Karbala massacre), and more importantly Sadr himself fears his own militia. The continued sectarian attacks on Shias and Sunnis and deliberate attack on important institutions have taken a psycholgical toll on both Shias and Sunnis and despite the cosmetic appearance by Shia, Sunni, and Kurd leaders(last Sunday) to pledge their desire and support for a peaceful and stable Iraq, the fact is that the common man cannot reconcile with his neighbor as more and more innocent people are being killed and vital institutions are being destroyed.
The Mehdi army is equally responsible as Al Quaeda and other insurgents for the sectarian violence. By specifically having a Shia militia protecting Shia institutions, they have already planted the seeds of division so to speak. The militia continues to grow stronger becoming one of the most powerful militias in the country with over 60,000 members. With the decision to reorganize, one can alternatively conclude that perhaps Sadr is trying to turn his Mehdi army into a paramilitary organization similar to AUC of Colombia or the Revolutionary Guards of Iran. If Sadr is receiving external support for this possible endevor, it can only be from Iran and/or Syria.
We must now worry about the possibility that Iran may have influenced Sadr to reorganize and/or freeze the militia's activities. How would Iran benefit from this? Iran as we all know is being intensely monitored by the international community for its potential to develop nuclear weapons. Just yesterday, Ahmednijad proclaimed that his country is now a "nuclear Iran." Yet at the same time, Iran is ready to disclose some vital elements of its nuclear program to the IAEA. Strategically, Iran has everything to gain from having a Shia dominated(politically and demographically) Iraq. But any Iranian misadventure in Iraq, no matter how small or insignificant, will bring forth US wrath and by extension a UN censure and sanctions. Ultimately it is possible that Iran has asked Sadr to stand down a bit in order to give both Iran and the Mehdi army some breathing space.
So what exactly can we deduce by Sadr's actions? Perhaps he has lost control...perhaps he fears the power of his militia, or perhaps he wants to keep the militia away from international scrutiny especially with the recent Karbala fighting. Or perhaps, Sadr is planning something far more sinister possibly with the help of Iran and/or Syria. It's anyone's guess at the moment. The best posture the US can take for now is to be wary of the militia and monitor its every move.
What is Moqutada Al Sadr upto...that is the question on everyone's minds at the moment. It really is a risky move on his part to "freeze" and "reorganize" the Mehdi army. Risky because it shows that even Sadr can't control his own militia, especially the excesses and recklessness of its members(i.e. Karbala massacre), and more importantly Sadr himself fears his own militia. The continued sectarian attacks on Shias and Sunnis and deliberate attack on important institutions have taken a psycholgical toll on both Shias and Sunnis and despite the cosmetic appearance by Shia, Sunni, and Kurd leaders(last Sunday) to pledge their desire and support for a peaceful and stable Iraq, the fact is that the common man cannot reconcile with his neighbor as more and more innocent people are being killed and vital institutions are being destroyed.
The Mehdi army is equally responsible as Al Quaeda and other insurgents for the sectarian violence. By specifically having a Shia militia protecting Shia institutions, they have already planted the seeds of division so to speak. The militia continues to grow stronger becoming one of the most powerful militias in the country with over 60,000 members. With the decision to reorganize, one can alternatively conclude that perhaps Sadr is trying to turn his Mehdi army into a paramilitary organization similar to AUC of Colombia or the Revolutionary Guards of Iran. If Sadr is receiving external support for this possible endevor, it can only be from Iran and/or Syria.
We must now worry about the possibility that Iran may have influenced Sadr to reorganize and/or freeze the militia's activities. How would Iran benefit from this? Iran as we all know is being intensely monitored by the international community for its potential to develop nuclear weapons. Just yesterday, Ahmednijad proclaimed that his country is now a "nuclear Iran." Yet at the same time, Iran is ready to disclose some vital elements of its nuclear program to the IAEA. Strategically, Iran has everything to gain from having a Shia dominated(politically and demographically) Iraq. But any Iranian misadventure in Iraq, no matter how small or insignificant, will bring forth US wrath and by extension a UN censure and sanctions. Ultimately it is possible that Iran has asked Sadr to stand down a bit in order to give both Iran and the Mehdi army some breathing space.
So what exactly can we deduce by Sadr's actions? Perhaps he has lost control...perhaps he fears the power of his militia, or perhaps he wants to keep the militia away from international scrutiny especially with the recent Karbala fighting. Or perhaps, Sadr is planning something far more sinister possibly with the help of Iran and/or Syria. It's anyone's guess at the moment. The best posture the US can take for now is to be wary of the militia and monitor its every move.
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
I'm back!
I'm in Panama at the moment and plan to stay here for a while. Great place, cosmopolitan, restaurants and hotels on every corner, large buildings, very touristy, fun and cheerful folks, hot ladies (arf!) and low prices :) What more could you ask for right? If there's a problem, it's the language. I don't know who the heck said that English is a second language in Panama..fact is 95% of folks here either don't know English or refuse to speak English. It's Spanish pride I'm guessing or a backlash effect to US insistence on all immigrants to learn English :P In anycase I got to unlearn French and relearn Spanish which is gonna take time. Ah well, it's always good to learn a new language...it'll definately help me get closer to the ladies ;)
Anyways, I'm gonna hit the news trail again and post my baloney thoughts, views, inspirations, and other kool stuff. Nothing much has changed in the Middle East right? Iraq is still trying to find its legs, Iran is pushing everyone's buttons, Israel is facing another bruhaha at the Temple Mount with the Waqf board doing construction work dangerously close to the Temple Mount..the fun never ends in that part of the world. I'll be making some reports on the current issues shortly :)
On a personal note, it's been hell trying to find jobs even though I've got my MA. I'm telling you younger folks out there, get some work experience(volunteer, internships, part time jobs etc). Having a degree is not enough anymore. You need to have professional work experience starting right from your undergrads if you want access to the job market. I'm learning this the hard way so please learn from my mistakes(cause I focused only on school and not on work experience) and get some pro training right now!
Thanks :)
p.s here's a great website with tons of info on Panama
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