Sadr freezes Militia activities...for 6 months

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6968720.stm

What is Moqutada Al Sadr upto...that is the question on everyone's minds at the moment. It really is a risky move on his part to "freeze" and "reorganize" the Mehdi army. Risky because it shows that even Sadr can't control his own militia, especially the excesses and recklessness of its members(i.e. Karbala massacre), and more importantly Sadr himself fears his own militia. The continued sectarian attacks on Shias and Sunnis and deliberate attack on important institutions have taken a psycholgical toll on both Shias and Sunnis and despite the cosmetic appearance by Shia, Sunni, and Kurd leaders(last Sunday) to pledge their desire and support for a peaceful and stable Iraq, the fact is that the common man cannot reconcile with his neighbor as more and more innocent people are being killed and vital institutions are being destroyed.

The Mehdi army is equally responsible as Al Quaeda and other insurgents for the sectarian violence. By specifically having a Shia militia protecting Shia institutions, they have already planted the seeds of division so to speak. The militia continues to grow stronger becoming one of the most powerful militias in the country with over 60,000 members. With the decision to reorganize, one can alternatively conclude that perhaps Sadr is trying to turn his Mehdi army into a paramilitary organization similar to AUC of Colombia or the Revolutionary Guards of Iran. If Sadr is receiving external support for this possible endevor, it can only be from Iran and/or Syria.

We must now worry about the possibility that Iran may have influenced Sadr to reorganize and/or freeze the militia's activities. How would Iran benefit from this? Iran as we all know is being intensely monitored by the international community for its potential to develop nuclear weapons. Just yesterday, Ahmednijad proclaimed that his country is now a "nuclear Iran." Yet at the same time, Iran is ready to disclose some vital elements of its nuclear program to the IAEA. Strategically, Iran has everything to gain from having a Shia dominated(politically and demographically) Iraq. But any Iranian misadventure in Iraq, no matter how small or insignificant, will bring forth US wrath and by extension a UN censure and sanctions. Ultimately it is possible that Iran has asked Sadr to stand down a bit in order to give both Iran and the Mehdi army some breathing space.

So what exactly can we deduce by Sadr's actions? Perhaps he has lost control...perhaps he fears the power of his militia, or perhaps he wants to keep the militia away from international scrutiny especially with the recent Karbala fighting. Or perhaps, Sadr is planning something far more sinister possibly with the help of Iran and/or Syria. It's anyone's guess at the moment. The best posture the US can take for now is to be wary of the militia and monitor its every move.